"Belarusian authoritarianism is to a great extent demanded from below," said Piotr Rudkouski, the BISS academic director, in the interview to the Flemish magazine Mondiaal Nieuws. "There are many factors accounting for such a state of affairs, not only economical, but also cultural and psychological. Lukashenka is a Soviet man in cultural terms, but he is remarkably non-Soviet when it comes to being responsive to a statistical, mediocre Belarusian. So, his real support, though certainly not 83%, it is nevertheless oscillating between 35 and 55%. Not bad."
"The spring protests were a major challenge to the current 'social contract' in Belarus. However, while not always successful in economic issues, the regime is virtually always successful in playing the security card. Any loss of power, any radical transformation is by default associated with the Maidan, the Crimea, and Syria. And it works."
The whole article in Flemish http://www.mo.be/analyse/het-echt-gedaan-met-lukashenko