The economic crisis that began in 2008 did not destabilize the foundations of the social contract between state and society and did not provoke the growth of the protest sentiment in Belarus. At the same time, there is a trend of increasing demand for the alternatives of development among certain social groups. These are the main conclusions of the study "Social impact of the global financial crisis", conducted by the axiometrical research laboratory Novak, in cooperation with BISS and the IPM Research Center. A study was presented to the public June 16, 2010 in Minsk.

The study was conducted under the project "Development of social dialogue on socio-economic and political alternatives: strengthening the capacity of civil society in Belarus" in the form of a nationwide survey on the representative sample of 1570 respondents in the first quarter of 2010.

The main findings of the study:

• The crisis did not make a significant impact on the people of Belarus. Whereas almost 2/3 of the population felt the economic crisis in 2009, only half of them (about a third of the population) felt the crisis "to a large extent". The vast majority of respondents described their lives in the categories "not all that bad, you can live" and that "life is hard, but is still possible to get by.” In general, the economic wellbeing of the population at the end of the crisis much better than it was in early 2000s, when the government took tough measures to balance public finances.
• At the same time, the number of respondents, confirming that they have lost their jobs during the crisis (5%) is significantly higher than the official data on unemployment in the country.
• The most affected categories by crisis are the workers, private entrepreneurs, the unemployed and workers of budgetary sphere; the least affected are pensioners and students.
• Approximately 40% of Belarusians, mostly people of retirement age and youth, did nothing to minimize the impact of economic crisis for personal well-being. Of those who responded to the crisis, the preferred strategies of adaptation were looking for additional income, reducing consumption, and tapping into savings. Only a small portion of the population sought the help from the state or family. About 2 percent have decided to correct the financial situation illegally. Finding an additional source of income was the most effective strategy to minimize the impact of the crisis.
• Despite the crisis, the protest mood in the society remains low. The number of those who are ready for some form of active protest (participating in demonstrations, strikes) does not exceed 10 percent of the population.

• The society is not charging the Belarusian authorities in a crisis, looking for the perpetrators primarily among the U.S. government, multinational corporations and international financial organizations. The majority endorses the fact that the Belarusian government takes loans from the International Monetary Fund.
• The society is divided as to assessing the methods by which the Belarusian authorities should respond to the crisis. Approximately 30 percent of the society insists on anti-market responses (support for state enterprises, increasing foreign debt, the abandonment of the privatization of large enterprises, establishment of control over private business, progressive taxation), about a quarter – on the market responses, nearly a half inclined to a certain "mix" of measures. In general, the Belarusian society supports primarily just those actions of the government (loans to the economy and foreign borrowing), which are most criticized by the opposition. In this society more inclined to the opposition point of view on issues such as taxation and support private enterprise.
• In spite of numerous predictions of a drastic shift in the "social contract" between state and society, there was no fundamental change in the social contract, except for a sharp reduction of those who believe that stability is sacrificed for political rights and freedoms. In general, the number of those who are willing to exist autonomously, independently of the state (outcasts) has not changed. The group of social contract (those who are willing to accept any conditions of the state in exchange for guarantees of stability and survival) decreased markedly, but above all, the group of those who would rather oscillates between the alternatives of freedom and stability grew significantly. Thus, the crisis rather forced the Belarusian society to thinking about the merits of their socio-economic model, but did not provoke a rapid increase in demand for change.
• Coverage of the crisis by non-state media was perceived largely negatively by the Belarusian society, including those who is not influenced by the state propaganda. At the same time, the society is split over the attitude to information from state media. A low confidence rating for independent media as sources of information about the crisis may be the result of "alarmist" approach to the coverage of the crisis in the early stages, when many media published unjustified projections and clearly unprofessional comments.

Through this study, BISS, IPM and laboratory Novak seek to bring relevant and objective information on the socio-economic development to the civil society to enhance its ability to be effective agents of changes in Belarusian society. The latest study confirmed, in our opinion, the apparent ineffectiveness of the some of the strategies by the civil community in times of crisis, for example, the hope that the crisis had dramatically changed the state of civil consciousness and lad to an increase in protest sentiment. At the same time, we publicly disseminate research data and are ready to advise the concerned social and public sponsors of the possible positive strategy of dialogue with Belarusian society.

Full version of the findings of the study in pdf format.